Ukuzinza, ukuVeliswa kwezinto ezintsha kunye nokusiNgqongileyo: ukunciphisa ungcoliseko lomoya, i-Italiya kwiinjongo ze-2030

I-Italiya isendleleni yokufikelela kwiinjongo ze-2030 zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezingcolisa umoya eziphambili, kunye neenzuzo zempilo (-50% yokufa xa kuthelekiswa ne-2010) kunye neenzuzo zezoqoqosho (i-33 yeebhiliyoni ze-euro zigcinwe xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ofanayo).

Oku kuvela kwelinye Isifundo se-ENEA epapashwe kwijenali yenzululwazi "Atmosphere", eyavavanya ukusebenza kwemigaqo-nkqubo kunye nemilinganiselo umgangatho womoya, yaziswa yiNkqubo yeSizwe yoLawulo loNgcoliseko loMoya yeSebe lezoTshintsho kwiNdawo.

Kule minyaka ilishumi izayo, kunye nemilinganiselo ecetywayo kwiSicwangciso, ilizwe lethu liya kukwazi ukufezekisa iinjongo zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa okusekwe yi-European Union kwi-sulphur dioxide (-80% ngokuchasene nethagethi ye-EU ye-71%), i-nitrogen oxides (-70). %, EU target 65%), PM2.5 (-42%, EU target 40%), Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (-50% EU target 46%) kunye neammonia (-17% EU target 16%).

"Ukufezekisa ezi njongo, ilizwe lethu kuya kufuneka lisebenze kumacala amaninzi, ngomxube wongenelelo olubandakanya i-decarbonisation yemveliso yamandla, ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kwindawo yokuhlala, ukusasazeka kokushukuma kombane kunye nokwamkelwa kweendlela ezintsha zolimo zezolimo. ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwenitrogen ”, kuchaza u-Ilaria D'Elia, umphandi we-ENEA Atmospheric Pollution laboratory kunye nombhali-mbhali wophononongo. “Kodwa ezi - wongeza - zeminye yemizekelo yamanyathelo ekufuneka athatyathwe ukuthomalalisa ungcoliseko lomoya. Kuya kubaluleka ukuba izinto ezininzi ekufuneka zenziwe zezohlobo lolwakhiwo hayi ngamaxesha athile kwaye zikhokelela kwinkqubo yokwenyani edibeneyo kunye nentsebenziswano phakathi kwemigaqo-nkqubo enxulumene nemozulu, amandla kunye nongcoliseko lomoya ”.

Ngokohlalutyo olwenziwa liqela le-Arhente,

ngo-2030, ukuncitshiswa kokukhutshwa kwesulfure dioxide kuya kuqhutywa ngamanye amacandelo, ngokukodwa icandelo laselwandle (-89% xa kuthelekiswa namaxabiso ka-2010) kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla (-59%). Kulindeleke ukwehla kabukhali ekukhutshweni kwenitrogen oxide, ngakumbi kwicandelo lezothutho ezindleleni (-74%) kunye nokuveliswa kombane (-46%). Kwi-PM2.5 ngaphambili, icandelo eliza kubonelela ngelona galelo likhulu ngokwemiqathango yokuthotywa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo ze-ultrafine particulate licandelo lasekuhlaleni (-46%) eliya kuqhubeka nokugcina irekhodi yezi zinto zikhutshwayo ngowama-2030. ngokunciphisa okuphantsi (-9% xa kuthelekiswa nemilinganiselo ye-2010), isiphumo esifunyenwe ngaphezu kwayo yonke into ngenxa yokusetyenziswa okuphantsi kwezichumisi ezisekelwe kwi-urea kwicandelo lezolimo kunye nokukhutshwa kwe-zootechnical.

"Ngo-2010, unyaka wesalathiso sophando lwethu, imephu yenitrogen dioksijini yabonisa ezona ndawo ziphezulu kwizixeko zaseMilan, eTurin, eRoma naseNaples nakwiindawo ezisezidolophini zePo Valley ngenxa yesiphumo esidityanisiweyo sokukhutshwa kokufudumeza kwasekhaya. ezolimo kunye nokuhamba ezidolophini kunye nokuhamba ngaphandle kwedolophu ", ugxininisa uAntonio Piersanti, intloko ye-ENEA Atmospheric Pollution Laboratory kunye nombhali-mbhali wophononongo. "Ngo-2030 - uyongezelela - ngenxa yamanyathelo aphunyezwe yiSicwangciso, isifundo sethu sifumanisa ukunciphisa ngokubanzi ukungcola kwedolophu, ngakumbi kwi-capital Lombard, ngenxa yokuhlaziywa okukhulu kweemoto zeemoto kunye nokwanda kwesabelo sezithuthi zombane. " .

Kwinqanaba lempilo yoluntu,

ukwamkelwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yomgangatho womoya kunye nemilinganiselo, ngokungenelela kumacandelo amandla, asekuhlaleni, ezolimo kunye nokuhamba, kunokukhokelela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kokufa okubangelwa zizifo eziye zaphuhliswa okanye eziphuhliswe ngenxa yongcoliseko lomoya. Ngokukodwa, ukuhla kwe-nitrogen dioxide concentrations kunokukhokelela ekunciphiseni kwe-2010% yokufa xa kuthelekiswa no-93 (i-793 iimeko xa kuthelekiswa ne-11.769 eqikelelwa kwi-2010), ilandelwa yi-PM2.5 kunye ne-41% yokufa okumbalwa (amatyala angama-34.666 xa kuthelekiswa ne-58.867 ngo-2010). ) kunye ne-ozone (O₃) kunye ne-36% yokufa ethintelweyo (amatyala ayi-1.725 ​​xa kuthelekiswa ne-2.692 ngo-2010). "Idatha ye-PM2.5 inomdla: ngokuhambelana nokulinganisa kwethu, ukufa kufuneka kwehle ukuya kwi-2030 amatyala kubemi abayi-4,43 ngo-10 xa kuthelekiswa ne-7,25 ngo-2010 kunye nokunciphisa okubaluleke kakhulu, kwinqanaba lengingqi, kuya kwenzeka ngokukodwa kwi-Po Valley kwaye kwiindawo zasezidolophini zaseFlorence, eRoma naseNaples ”, kuchaza uD'Elia.

Kwicala lezoqoqosho, uphononongo lwe-ENEA lulinganisele malunga I-33 yeebhiliyoni ukonga ngokubanzi kwe-Italiya, ilingana ne-2% ye-GDP 2010, unyaka wesalathiso wophononongo. Uluhlu oluphambili yiLombardy kunye ne-13,6 yeebhiliyoni zee-euro ezigciniweyo, ilandelwa yiLazio (i-4,4 yezigidigidi), iVeneto (i-3,2 yezigidigidi) kunye ne-Emilia-Romagna (i-2,9 yezigidigidi).

Umsebenzi wenziwa ngenkqubo "MINNI".

(Umzekelo oDityanisiweyo weSizwe ukuxhasa uThethathethwano lwaMazwe ngaMazwe ngemiba yongcoliseko lomoya), enye ilandelayo yezixhobo eziphuhliswe yi-ENEA kunye neenkampani i-Arianet kunye ne-IIASA (Iziko laMazwe ngaMazwe loHlalutyo lweeNkqubo eziSetyenzisiweyo) egameni loMphathiswa weNguqulelo yeNdalo. E-MINNI, inzululwazi ye-atmospheric inxulunyaniswe neempembelelo zamanyathelo okunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwenkunkuma kwimpilo yabantu kunye ne-ecosystems kunye neendleko ezinxulumene noko, ngokusebenzisa amacandelo ahlukeneyo azimeleyo kunye adibeneyo: imodeli ye "AMS" (Atmospheric Modeling System) kunye " GAINS-Italy "(Greenhouse Gas kunye noNxibelelwano loNgcoliseko loMoya kunye neModeli ye-Synergies phezu kwe-Itali). I-AMS ivelisa ngeyure iindawo ezine-dimensional zemeteorological variables kunye noxinzelelo lwezona zinto zingcolisayo (NO₂, OKANYE₃, PM10, PM2.5, njl. njl.) kuwo wonke ummandla wase-Italiya kunye nesisombululo esithe tye sesithuba se-4 km, kusetyenziswa i-"FARM" (Flexible Air Quality Regional Model) uthutho kunye nemodeli yekhemistri yomoya: imodeli ye-GAINS-Italia ichaza iimeko zokukhupha inqanaba lesizwe nelengingqi lazo zombini izingcolisi zemveli kunye neegesi zegreenhouse ezinexesha elide ukuya kuma-2050 kuhlalutyo lwempembelelo kumgangatho womoya kunye neendleko ezinxulumene nokuthomalalisa / amanyathelo okunciphisa. Kolu phononongo, "MINNI" yaphunyezwa ngokulinganisa okupheleleyo konyaka "AMS" kwimeko yesiseko ye-2010 kwaye inikwe amandla yi-2030 ekhutshwayo eveliswa nge-GAINS-Italy imodeli kwiimeko ezimbini ezahlukeneyo (2030 "NgeMiqathango", ehambelana nemeko yesiqhelo. kunye no-2030 "NgeMiqathango eyoNgezelelweyo", imeko yomgaqo-nkqubo), ukufumana AKUKHO uluhlu lokugxininiswa₂, PM2.5 kunye ne-O₃ kwisisombululo se-4 km, esetyenziselwa uvavanyo olulandelayo lwempembelelo kwimpilo kunye neendleko.

Ercole Palmeri